From SurveyUSA (registered voters; 07/30/07, 02/14/07 in parens):
Norm Coleman (R): 49 (57)
Al Franken (DFL): 42 (35)
Undecided: 9Norm Coleman (R): 48 (57)
Mike Ciresi (DFL): 42 (34)
Undecided: 11Norm Coleman (R): 49
Jim Cohen (DFL): 37
Undecided: 14
MoE: ±4%
What a tumble for Smilin’ Norm since February. Coleman, who has enjoyed strong (but hardly stellar) approval ratings for much of the past two years, now has a net negative approval rating for the first time in 27 months of SUSA’s tracking history (48% disapprove, 43% approve). The key here is that he can’t crack 50% against a candidate with very little name recognition: activist Jim Cohen. (Seriously: who?)
There’s been quite a bit of skepticism (from myself included, I’ll admit), that Norm Coleman may be able to shape-shift his way out of the jaws of defeat while not facing a “top tier” Democratic challenger. With voters still feeling frustrated over the Iraq debacle, even Smilin’ Norm may not be able to escape the anvil of the thoroughly disastrous Bush legacy.
(Hat tip: Taegan Goddard)
It’s great news to see that Coleman is below 50% but who do you think will have a better chance at beating Coleman Franken or Ciresi? It looks like either would give out a good fight.
If Franken is tying Coleman, then McCollum, (who represents his city of St. Paul where the last Democrat serious underperformed, causing him the election), would probably be four or five percentage points ahead. It’s a shame she’s not running. At the moment, I really hope that State Sen. Kelley.
finally deflect a lot of the criticisms that Al Franken is “unelectable”. Well, honestly, who is our best candidate for Senate? Oberstar/Collins are too old, Ellison comes from a ridiculously uncompetitive Democratic district, Walz is a 1st-termer… McCollum? is she really that strong? Is Rybak really much stronger?
I think even if Franken isn’t our absolute super-star candidate, he’ll easily make a good race out of this, and I think that he WILL end up on top.
Coleman is a very experienced politician, while Franken may have a lot of involvement with political causes, the urge to keep his mouth under control would be an uphill battle. Remember George “Macaca” Allen? He looked like a shoo-in, and one slip up killed his reelection chances. Franken is a very controversial candidate, and the idea of seeing him in the Senate may give me delight, it’s still pretty farfetched. Judging from those numbers above, that’s the same number Coleman won by in 2002 against Mondale, but the DFL (Franken) in this poll gets even less votes! So Democrats have some work cut out for them.
i have worked hard against coleman in every race he’s run. given the environment, he could lose to either franken or ciresi if they run very good campaigns. ciresi’s better on paper but has run a lacklustre campaign. walz ran a perfect campaign against an entrenched incumbent in a reddish district. he is a national guardsman, articulate regular guy with a young family, schoolteacher who has the right position on every issue. he would beat coleman by at leat ten points – given his many strengths and his lack of weaknesses (name id can be easily fixed, $ is a bit of a challenge, but he could easily overcome it). mccollum’s great but she has a lot more to lose as a safe-seat congressperson on the appropriations committee. i would advise her not to run.
rybak is intriguing. he’s out of central casting in terms of his looks and speaking and his positions are certainly more in line with the average mn voter in ’08. but mpls is the leftmost of cities with a weak mayor system so that poses some challenges. and he seems disinclined to run.
ellison’s a good fit for his seat, but has a ton of baggage and is a bad fit fot the state.
so we’re probably back to ciresi vs. franken. and i’m torn. rothenburg has a great article about this on his blog.
I think Franken’s biggest challenge is to present himself as an electable alternative and this poll goes to show that voters are beginning to take him seriously. I think Coleman is a good campaigner and the race will be close, but these numbers tell me that both Franken and Ciresi cannot be dismissed.